How Not to Look Like an Idiot
by Dakota Loomis

Filling out an NCAA bracket offers a simple tutorial in the law of diminishing returns. At some point, the amount of time and effort one puts into picking winners begins to outweigh the benefits accrued. Researching charts, graphs, odd acronyms (RPI, SOS) and the medical histories of the every shooting guard on probation (Missouri, I'm looking at you) quickly becomes counterproductive. Little to no new insight is gained, but you will gain an inordinate amount of mocking contempt and scorn when it's revealed you spent 13 hours on your office pool only to be soundly beaten by your boss' niece.

The important question then is, when does the law of diminishing returns kick in? My 22 years of NCAA pool experience have guided me to the following conclusion: 14-15 minutes, provided you're drinking a beer throughout the entire process.

Experience has also taught me there are a few solid rules that should never be violated. Follow them and avoid embarrassment; take yourself seriously and prepare to suffer the slings and arrows of cubicle neighbors, grandmothers and little brothers.

1. Ignore all schools with directions and hyphenated names e.g. Southern Illinois, Southwest Missouri State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee. If a team has both a direction and a hyphen in its name, take out a second mortgage, find your neighborhood bookie and place everything on its opponent.

2) Never blindly follow your alma mater or favorite school. Ditching your boys in the second round is a safe way to ensure they make the Final Four. You might lose your pool, but it's better not to curse your team than curse yourself for penciling Holy Cross into the championship game just because you were, like, three credits short of graduation.

3) The opposite goes for rivals or least-favorite schools. Picking your least-favorite teams to go far is a perverted form of insurance, but it is insurance many need to overcome blind hatred. It's cold comfort to make a few bucks off Duke's deep tournament run, but losing money while watching Dantaye Jones gratuitously flex guarantees not only a broken TV, but the loss of close acquaintances. Even Duke is not worth the restraining orders.

4) The Big Ten will screw you worse than a Tiajuana whore. Let me be frank: The Big Ten is the slowest, least-skilled, worst-shooting disgrace to happen to basketball since I played seventh grade intramurals. The Big Ten has brought basketball more ill repute than Al Sharpton brought the perm. Yet, while all Big Ten teams are making early exits, one unsuspecting squad will incongruously stumble into the Final Four. Correctly pick that team and you will win your tournament. Of course, pick incorrectly and you and your bracket are irrevocably screwed.

5) Always take the nine seed over the eight seed. It's technically an upset, but statistically speaking there is no difference between the two. We call it a victory whenever you can look like you know what you're doing while having no clue.

6) A 16 seed has never beaten a one seed and never have all one seeds advanced to the Final Four, no seed higher than an eight has ever won the tournament and a five seed has never won the tournament. Just a few historical trends to remember when filling your bracket out.

7) When in doubt, take the higher seed. It's a simple rule, but when you've seen neither Tulsa, the 12 seed, or Dayton, the four seed, the safe money is on Dayton. The people seeding the tournament know more than the average pool participant. Use their knowledge.

8) Vegas is your friend. While I'd have a hard time convincing my uncle of this, a simple perusing of the official Las Vegas gambling line can be a huge help picking winners. If the line is over four, go with the favorite, under four, take the points and lay down a grand. After the first round, use Vegas' line on eventual NCAA champ to compare teams head to head. Why this works: Las Vegas never made money by being wrong.

9) Don't stress. Keep things in perspective. The NCAA tournament is about rooting for underdogs, bad-mouthing Duke, finding the sports bar with the most plasma TVs, the best looking waitstaff (hey, we're all about equality) and cheap pitchers. Obsessing and becoming insanely competitive only opens one to further ridicule and heartbreak. Still, it would be sweet to beat that ass-hat Jared in shipping.

FIRST ROUND

Midwest

(1) Kentucky over (16) IUPUI
IUPUI has the best acronym in the tournament and the worst chance of winning. Get used to hearing this stat: A 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed. There's a very good reason for this.

(9) Utah over (8) Oregon
Upset No. 1, even though Utah's RPI is higher than Oregon's and they have a better record. But that's the brilliance of the 9 seed upset.

(12) Weber St. over (5) Wisconsin
Owner's of the nations second-longest winning streak (17), Weber State has the luxury of playing a team from the Big Ten, the inbred conference of the NCAA.

(13) Tulsa over (4) Dayton
Once I penciled in Weber St. it only made sense that Tulsa wins, setting up the coveted 12-13 match-up. Plus, with the line hovering at 2, I'm not the only person thinking upset. This is the game I'm going to look back on and ask what the hell I was thinking. I'm fine with that.

(6) Missouri over (11) Southern Illinois
Directional school No. 1 bows out.

(3) Marquette over (14) Holy Cross
Insert your own joke about not even God being able to help Holy Cross.

(7) Indiana and (10) Alabama
Neither team should be in the tournament and giving Indiana a seven seed is comparable to giving the Nazis the Sudetenland. Except giving Indiana a 7 seed will have more disastrous consequences. I refuse to pick a winner, I feel that strongly.

(2) Pitt over (15) Wagner
It's Wagner's first trip to the Big Dance. Unfortunately, they play a Pitt team that's out to prove it deserved a one seed. Oh, and Pitt is much, much, much better.

West

(1) Arizona over (16) Vermont
A 16 seed has never beaten a one seed. I told you to get used to hearing that.

(9) Gonzaga over (8) Cincinnati
The beauty of the nine seed upset redux.

(5) Notre Dame over (12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee
The curse of the hyphen strikes. Plus, Notre Dame really does have God on its side.

(4) Illinois over (13) Western Kentucky
Illinois is the exception to the Big Ten rule, able to play entertaining and athletic basketball for long stretches. Western Kentucky is not the exception to the direction rule.

(11) Central Michigan over Creighton
But doesn't this violate the direction law? Not unless you've ever told someone to head in a central direction. Gotta love technicalities.

(3) Duke over (14) Colorado State
CSU has the true inside presence in the NBA-bound 7-footer Matt Nelson that Duke sorely lacks. Duke also lacks morals and a soul, but that's always served it well in the past. My favorite team to hate moves on.

(7) Memphis over (10) Arizona State
I like Memphis, but the spread is within four points. We're still going with Memphis because they're called guidelines for a reason.

(2) Kansas over (15) Utah St.
Full disclosure: I was born and raised in Lawrence, Kansas, home of the Jayhawks. I somehow still live in Lawrence, with my parents, and therefore need Kansas to win to bring some modicum of joy to my otherwise meaningless life.

South

(1) Texas over (16) UNC-Asheville
I think we all know what happens when a one seed plays a 16 seed, especially a hyphenated 16 seed.

(8) LSU over (9) Purdue
The Big Ten rule trumps the 9-8 upset rule, allowing the Big Ten to again demonstrate how not to play basketball with a struggling Purdue team (3-6 over their last nine games). Fans might argue that Purdue is a senior-led team with a proven scorer in Willie Deane and a deep bench that could give LSU and even Texas problems. Those fans would be wrong.

(5) Connecticut over (12) Brigham Young
BYU has been the center of the biggest controversy in this, the NCAA's most controversial year in a while. Slated to possibly play on a Sunday (apparently Mormons take that day of rest stuff super seriously), BYU will have to be shuffled into the Midwest region should it advance out of the first two rounds. For the sake of tournament pools and illegal gambling everywhere BYU loses to a UConn team now playing its best basketball.

(4) Stanford over (13) San Diego
Stanford is the type of athletically unintimidating yet fundamentally sound team that relies upon rebounding and defense to win games lower seeds dream of playing. San Diego will keep it close, covering the 6.5 point line, but ultimately falling short of the W.

(6) Maryland over (11) UNC-Wilmington
Last year's national champion isn't losing in the first round to a hyphenated North Carolina team that's staffed with ACC rejects.

(3) Xavier over (14) Troy St.
Predictably, Troy St.'s mascot is the Trojans. School administrators do know that the Trojans lost the war, right? The history of losing continues.

(10) Colorado over (7) Michigan St.
Colorado's Big 12 tested squad will remove yet another of the Big Ten basketball eyesores.

(2) Florida over (15) Sam Houston
One guy against an entire state, that's completely unfair.

East

(1) Oklahoma over (16) South Carolina State

(9) NC State over (8) California
To be honest, I like both these teams. I even think Cal will win, but why go against the upset rule when either of these teams will lose to Oklahoma anyway.

(5) Mississippi State over (12) Butler
I know nothing about either of these teams outside of MSU's Mario Austin. That's enough for me.

(4) Louisville over (13) Austin Peay
Rick Pitino is back in the tournament, proving that he is one of the greatest college coaches of all-time and one of the worst professional coaches of all-time.

(11) Penn over (6) Oklahoma State
My anti-elitism doesn't' want to pick an Ivy League school, but it helps to remember that Penn is the short bus school of the Ivy League. Even Cornell makes fun of Penn students. Penn in the ugliest game of the opening weekend.

(3) Syracuse over (14) Manhattan
The NBA is drooling over Syracuse freshman Carmelo Anthony and Manhattan will get a first hand demonstration of why.

(7) St. Joseph over (10) Auburn
Two teams I really know nothing about. Advantage goes to the pious higher seed.

(2) Wake Forest over (15) E. Tennessee St.
In our final first round game, the last directional team gets the boot.

SECOND ROUND

Midwest

(1) Kentucky over (9) Utah
There will be no all Utah Sweet 16 match-up.

(12) Weber St. over (13) Tulsa
Weber State's winning ways continue, setting up an all Wildcat Sweet 16.

(6) Missouri over (3) Marquette
The fact that Missouri is Kansas' biggest rival and coached by a former Dukie Quin Snyder can only mean one thing, victory. Snyder and his hair celebrate with a papaya/mango deep conditioning treatment.

(2) Pitt over (7) Indiana or (10) Alabama
Either way, Pitt wins in a walk.

West

(1) Arizona over (9) Gonzaga
The nine-seed upset is only good for a single round. Keep betting on the underdog and you'll lose your shirt.

(4) Illinois over (5) Notre Dame
Illinois proves it's the only non-pretender out of the Big Ten. God would like to help, but has more pressing issues what with the war in Iraq and the pedophiles in the church.

(3) Duke over (11) Central Michigan
Coach K or as he's better known, Beelzebub, easily guides his minions past an overmatched, but certainly not outclassed Central Michigan. For a good drinking game, drink a shot every time Duke flops and two shots for every foul Duke draws. By the end of the game you won't be drunk, you'll be dead.

(2) Kansas over (7) Memphis
Though they are my favorite team and I should therefore avoid picking them, the possibility of playing Duke in the Sweet 16 means Kansas squeaks through.

South

(1) Texas over (8) LSU
Having played Purdue, a Big Ten school, in the first round, LSU is unprepared to play a real basketball team in the second round. Texas and T.J. Ford put on a basketball clinic.

(5) Connecticut over (4) Stanford
Stanford players preoccupied with molecular biology quiz and Palo Alto in the spring get blown out of the gym by a UConn squad preoccupied with not having to return to Principles of Applied Speaking and Storrs, Connecticut.

(6) Maryland over (3) Xavier
Reverting to the love thine enemies guideline, Maryland's ouster of KU in last year's Final Four can only mean they live to play another day. Steve "Opie" Blake and the rest of the 'Terps beat up on the hapless Musketeers.

(2) Florida over (10) Colorado
Everyone knows that a 10 seed or a seven seed is going to upset a two seed. I just don't have a clue who it'll be. Play is safe and pick the Gators.

East

(1) Oklahoma over (9) NC State
The odds of Oklahoma winning the tournament are 8-1. NC State's staring at 100-1 odds. You do the math.

(5) Mississippi State over (4) Louisville
Louisville and Rick Pitino will win a National Championship. Just not this year. My lack of knowledge of MSU works in their favor again, only because I don't like Louisville.

(3) Syracuse over (11) Penn
Carmelo Anthony beats Penn single handedly, ensuring that he'll be the third overall pick in the NBA draft and a multimillionaire. Wharton School student and Ivy League Player of the Year Ugonna Onyekwe will be hired during the last TV timeout to help 'Melo count his money.

(2) Wake Forest over (7) St. Joseph
Guideline number seven comes into play again. I have reservations about Wake Forest, but play it safe and take the higher seed.

SWEET SIXTEEN

Midwest

(1) Kentucky over (12) Weber State
Will the Wildcats who have the best chance of winning the National Title please step forward? Not so fast Weber State

(6) Missouri over (2) Pitt
Pitt's inability to shoot free throws and close out games coupled with Missouri's balanced scoring open the door for this minor upset. My irrational hatred of Missouri would normally require that I choose them, but I actually think they're better than Pitt.

West

(4) Illinois over (1) Arizona
Arizona's overtime loss to UCLA demonstrated a lack of concentration and their tendency to play at their opponents level. Illinois drags down the much better Wildcats, keeping the hopes of Big Ten basketball fans alive.

(3) Duke over (2) Kansas
The showdown between Kansas and the Princes of Darkness can have only one outcome on my bracket. Duke must advance lest I curse KU, guaranteeing the double whammy of watching Kansas lose to Duke while I lose money to all my office's secretaries.

South

(1) Texas over (4) UConn
With one four seed already into the Elite Eight, there's no need to pick another upset. Play it safe, slot Texas into the South Regional Championship game and relax as T.J. Ford proves he is the best player in the NCAA not named Carmelo Anthony.

(2) Florida over (3) Xavier
Florida ended the season on a three game losing streak. Look for them to make Xavier their third tournament victory in a row, with the Vegas odds (12-1 vs. 35-1) and the seeding going in their favor.

East

(1) Oklahoma over (5) MSU
The safe money is always on the one seed, especially once you've eliminated another region's one seed. Oklahoma also has Hollis Price, this year's Juan Dixon.

(3) Syracuse over (2) Wake Forest
When everyone is saying that Wake Forest is the weakest two seed, listening is not a bad idea. Either you get this wrong along with all the other sheep too weak-willed to make their own decisions or you're right and there's no harm done.

ELITE EIGHT

Midwest: (1) Kentucky over (6) Missouri
Playing the top two teams back to back spells disaster for Missouri. Kentucky and their incredible 11-5 odds will not be denied and move on to New Orleans and the Final Four.

West: (4) Illinois over (3) Duke
The tyrannical reign of Duke will come to an end at the hands of the Big Ten Cinderella. As long as Duke assistant coach and former player/whiner Chris Collins cries this tournament will be a success.

South: (1) Texas over (2) Florida
Texas proves it deserved the one seed and the soft bracket by joining fellow one seed Kentucky in the Final Four. While Florida could easily win this game, stick with a couple one seeds in your Final Four.

East: (3) Syracuse over (1) Oklahoma
With Texas and Kentucky already slotted into the Final Four, three one seeds would be overkill. Also, Syracuse benefits from playing in Albany, a mere stones throw from its campus.

FINAL FOUR

(1) Kentucky over (4) Illinois
Do not get swept up with the possibility of upsets in these most important rounds. The more conservative play becomes much more attractive the deeper into the tournament you go. The highly touted Wildcats should be in the championship game and if they're not everyone's pool is screwed, not just your own. Remember, the goal isn't to win, the goal is to prove you're not a pompous idiot.

(1) Texas over (3) Syracuse
Repeat the conservative choice and place the other one seed in the National Championship. Syracuse's freshmen, should they be playing in the Final Four, will be too awestruck and unprepared to play their best basketball anyway.

CHAMPIONSHIP

(1) Texas over (1) Kentucky
Conservative choices have gotten you this far, but what's the fun of always playing by the rules? If Texas wins, you're a savant, if they lose you're a bold risk taker who came up just short. These are descriptions we can live with.

Follow these simple rules and showing your bracket to friends and family will illicit quiet nods of admiration, rather than derision and sardonic chuckles. Remember, the key is to avoid public humiliation and lose with dignity and grace. It's a strategy I've employed my entire life with nothing but success. Though I do still live at home.

E-mail Dakota Loomis at dakotaloomis@hotmail.com.

— graphic by D.P. Barsam (barsam@hotpop.com)