A Bracketologist's Perspective
by Luciano D'Orazio

Before I go into my picks and analysis into this year's tournament, some credentials are in order: I was born in St. Johns country. At my house, we worshipped Lou Carnesecca and the Redmen (NOT the Red Storm) as they got ever so close, only to be swatted down by John Thompson and his giant minions at Georgetown. My sweaters reflect my devotion, much to my parents' dismay. Even more distressing, I made a tough decision to join the enemy and enrolled at Georgetown. As a Hoya from 1995 to 1999 I saw the best and the worst (mostly the latter) of college basketball. Especially this year, the bracketing is bittersweet, as alma mater is nowhere to be found. Again.

Enough griping. My picks this year, as they are every year, are based on liberal amounts of basketball and bracket knowledge, plus a dash of gut feeling. Your best brackets involve a dose of all three. So if there's still doubt on how to score that C-note in the office pool, this may be of service:

FIRST ROUND

Midwest

(1) Kentucky over (16) IUPUI

(8) Oregon over (9) Utah
Ducks are riding high on their Pac-10 tournament victory. All aboard the momentum train!

(12) Weber State over (5) Wisconsin
Good pick because of both the old 5-12 rule mentioned above and Wisconsin being shaky after an early bounce from the Big Ten tourney. Also, it will piss off certain Flaksters who graduated from Wisconsin. Excellent.

(4) Dayton over (13) Tulsa
Another gut reaction. Besides, there are far too many Oklahoma teams in this thing to be considered healthy.

(6) Missouri over (11) Southern Illinois
Mizzou lost the Big 12 crown to Oklahoma by a basket. Otherwise, it's been steamrolling the competition.

(3) Marquette over (14) Holy Cross
In the battle of Jesuit schools, Marquette usually wins in the roundball category. Don't see a change of that here.

(10) Alabama over (7) Indiana
Both teams have a chip on their shoulder due to subpar February performances. It'll be close, but I like the Crimson Tide.

(2) Pittsburgh over (15) Wagner
Based on firsthand observation, Pitt is a scary team. Player health may be a factor, but not in the first round.

West

(1) Arizona over (16) Vermont

(9) Gonzaga over (8) Cincinnati
Once again, America's favorite mid-major team rears its head. Gonzaga can win the early round on aura alone.

(5) Notre Dame over (12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee
I like the Irish, even though they must shake the cobwebs of their Big East exit.

(13) Western Kentucky over (4) Illinois
Gut reaction. I haven't yet picked a team with a direction in its name to advance, and it looks like the Illini are hot enough to be doused in a major, out-of-the-blue upset.

(6) Creighton over (11) Central Michigan
Close one. And a complete conservative estimate of two mid-majors.

(3) Duke over (14) Colorado State
Again, I do this holding my nose.

(10) Arizona State over (7) Memphis
Memphis aims to cause major headaches in the second and third rounds. The Sun Devils, and potent 1-2 shooting, have something to say about that.

(2) Kansas over (15) Utah State
Another case of where location (Oklahoma City) will play a factor as Kansas stakes it on a pseudo-home advantage.

South

(1) Texas over University of North Carolina-Ashville.
See above. Even more so since it's the winner of the play-in game, regarded as the second-worst team in the tournament.

(9) Purdue over (8) LSU
This is a huge wild-card. LSU has been playing great as of late. My brain says to pick the Tigers, but my gut says the Boilermakers may douse the hype.

(5) Connecticut over (12) Brigham Young
UConn is a favorite in this wide-open region. They won't bounce yet.

(4) Stanford over (13) San Diego
I'm picking this one to be close. Stanford hasn't been looking good of late. However, they will pull this out.

(6) Maryland over (11) UNC-Wilmington
The defending champion will be looking to overcome its 6 seed, at UNC-W's expense.

(3) Xavier over (14) Troy State
A one-time Cinderella team will not be taken so lightly anymore. Still, Xavier should be able to stop Troy State's aspirations.

(10) Colorado over (7) Michigan State
Tough game. Colorado has developed a Big East-esque propensity for brutal inside play. I see it overwhelming the Spartans' perimeter shooting.

(2) Florida over (15) Sam Houston State
Florida's practically on a home court (Tampa, a few hours from Gainesville). This bodes well for the Gators.

East

(1) Oklahoma over (16) South Carolina State.
This is just innate bracket knowledge. Jesus can come back to Earth, smite the hellbound, exalt the righteous, and lead us to the everlasting kingdom of light and good, and it still won't make a 16 seed beat a 1. Done.

(9) North Carolina State over (8) California
Mostly based on NC State's ACC Tournament run. An impressive performance until the Duke machine rolled in.

(12) Butler over (5) Mississippi State
Here's a bit of bracketology to file away: When you fill a bracket, make sure to have at least one 5-12 upset. Statistically, this is a money bet. This particular one is good if it proves to be a close game. MS State could've sealed the deal vs. No. 1 Kentuckey in the SEC title game, but sloppy ballhandling and inaccurate shooting was the opening the Wildcats needed to open a comfortable lead. Might be an omen of things to come.

(4) Louisville over (13) Austin Peay
I'll admit it. I like Louisville coach Rick Pitino. Like Monty Burns, Slick Rick is pure evil. And the Mark of the Beast will lead the Cardinals far in this tourney.

(6) Oklahoma State over (11) Pennsylvania
Penn seeks to follow the 1996 Princeton Tigers as a sleeper to watch. But I think OK State will shake off its defensive doldrums of late and advance.

(3) Syracuse over (14) Manhattan
I do this holding my nose. I quote my good friend Bill Appleyard, "Bring me the head of Jim Boeheim on a pike!"

(10) Auburn over (7) St. Joseph's
A tight one. Strictly gut reaction.

(2) Wake Forest over (15) East Tennessee State
Wake was regular-season champ of the Atlantic Coast Conference, one of college basketball's toughest. East Tennessee will be like the buzzing of flies to them.

SECOND ROUND

Midwest

(1) Kentucky over (9) Utah
(12) Weber State over (4) Dayton
(6) Missouri over (3) Marquette
(2) Pittsburgh over (10) Alabama

Look for Weber State to make a statement against Dayton. Kentucky should roll easily.

West Region

(1) Arizona over (9) Gonzaga
(13) Western Kentucky over (5) Notre Dame
(3) Duke over (6) Creighton
(2) Kansas over (10) Arizona State

I pick Western Kentucky as another Cinderella as Notre Dame comes to terms with its rough Big East Schedule.

South

(1) Texas over (9) Purdue
(4) Stanford over (5) Connecticut
(6) Maryland over (3) Xavier
(2) Florida over (10) Colorado

In the wide open South, see the defending champion Maryland show why the sixth seed is too low.

East

(1) Oklahoma over (9) NC State
(4) Louisville over (12) Butler
(3) Syracuse over (6) Oklahoma State
(2) Wake Forest over (10) Auburn

Louisville and Wake put the kibosh on Butler's and Auburn's Cinderella stories.

SWEET 16

Midwest Region

(1) Kentucky over (12) Weber State
(6) Missouri over (2) Pittsburgh

Mizzou continues its impressive run at the expense of Pittsburgh, where health problems will finally nip their chances.

West Region

(1) Arizona over (13) Western Kentucky
(2) Kansas over (3) Duke

Reality rears its ugly head here as the top seeds dispatch a Cinderella and a woefully underpowered Duke (Thank God.)

South Region

(4) Stanford over (1) Texas
(6) Maryland over (2) Florida

Texas seems a soft 1. But Stanford is a softer 4. This should be close, but I think experience will still guide Stanford ahead.

East Region

Oklahoma, a glamour pick for Final Four, will be felled by Pitino's minions.

ELITE EIGHT

Midwest: (1) Kentucky over (6) Missouri
Pitt's health woes open the door for Kentucky, although Mizzou may give its best run in years.

West: (1) Arizona over (2) Kansas
This region gets a little hairy as lots of tough teams duke it out (no pun intended). But the world should continue to right itself, as it did in the Sweet 16, as the Wildcats rise to the top.

South: (4) Stanford over (6) Maryland
This is a wild region. And Stanford is a soft 4 due to its dismal showing against USC in the Pac-10 tourney. But I picked it because they bring back players from tough tourney teams of the past who can get it together in the pinch. I'll probably see them fall, but it's my really big gamble.

East: (4) Louisville over (2) Wake Forest
The power of Lucifer, working through his imp Pitino, will power the Cardinals to the Final Four.

FINAL FOUR

(1) Kentucky over (1) Arizona
(4) Stanford over (4) Louisville

CHAMPIONSHIP

(1) Kentucky over (4) Stanford
I see Louisville, run on Satanic fumes, stopped by Stanford smarts and perimeter shooting. The Wildcat vs. Wildcat game between Kentucky and Arizona looks great on paper. It'll be close, but Arizona has potential health problems that will probably manifest themselves as it battles Kentucky.

Kentucky, in toto, showed grit and imagination in its tough SEC win over Mississippi State. I like their attitude, their depth and their poise. In my educated opinion, Kentucky will once again assume the crown of national champion. A conservative choice, I know, but ultimately in the Final Four and onward, it becomes more predictable.

E-mail Luciano D'Orazio at loudogs1@aol.com.

— graphic by D.P. Barsam (barsam@hotpop.com)