Flak Magazine: Kick Out the Sports! 01.02.06

There's something pathetic about being part of a fan base rooting for your team to lose so you can get the No. 1 pick. I should know, having grown up on the pathetic Indianapolis Colts of the mid-to-late 1980s and early 1990s. You sell out your own guys hoping you will get the magical top pick, the one guy who is finally going to turn your sorry franchise around.

Except it rarely works out that way.

Fans of the San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans, foes in Sunday's so-called Reggie Bush Bowl — and maybe fans of the Jets, Packers and Saints, all of whom had a shot entering the weekend of being bad enough to get a chance at drafting the Heisman Trophy-winning running back — should keep this in mind: rarely does a No. 1 pick mean anything but false hope and disappointment.

Your teams are only in position for the ultimate reward for lousiness because, from the ownership on down, they're run horribly. And that whammy extends to the No. 1 pick, who is usually an ultimately undeserving player whose career is pulled under by ankle weights loaded with an excessive bonus, oversized ego and limited talent all attached to a chafing strap of team rottenness.

To get an idea how little really is at stake in the Reggie Bowl, figure that in 75 drafts (including six conducted by the old AFL in the 1960s), 11 No. 1 picks have gone on to be Hall of Famers. Since 1990, NFL No. 1 picks have combined for 27 Pro Bowl appearances. For No. 2 picks, the numbers are 11 Hall of Famers, and 27 Pro Bowl appearances since 1990. And that even accounts for Ryan Leaf.

For argument's sake, we'll say former No. 1s Bruce Smith, Orlando Pace and Peyton Manning are surefire Hall of Famers. So that's 14 out of 75, maybe even 15 if you figure Carson Palmer's new, enormous contract presages a Hall of Fame career. That gives the team with the No. 1 pick a one-in-five chance of getting a legend. That also gives the team with the No. 1 pick a four-in-five chance of getting Walt Putalski.

It's understandable that in the backfield battle of Bush v. (Frank) Gore, the 49ers don't want to be left hanging. Surely the people of Houston, home of all things Bush, feel like they could make the USC star feel right at home. But looking at the recent history of No. 1 picks, the teams' fans are advised to not to get their hopes up:

1990 — Jeff George, QB, Illinois, Indianapolis

George should be the ultimate cautionary tale for any general manager who falls in love with a player for everything except what he does on the field. He went from probable second-round pick to No. 1 on the basis of a workout showing off his million-dollar arm, but the reason he was rated so low to begin with was because of his 10-cent head. Result: 13 seasons, zero Pro Bowls.

Better choices: all-time leading rusher Emmit Smith, drafted No. 17 by Dallas. Teams whiffed so badly in this draft, the only defensible pick made ahead of Smith was linebacker Junior Seau, by San Diego, at No. 5. (In fact, next time you see draftniks and general managers raving about somebody's draft, go back through the archives and check out the actual drafts. If teams are lucky, maybe one-third of the first round picks ever amount to anything.)

1991 — Russell Maryland, DT, Miami, Dallas

To be fair, Maryland wasn't horrible, and this was one draft where beforehand most experts predicted — correctly — this class wouldn't amount to much. Result: 10 seasons, one Pro Bowl. Better choice: Brett Favre, with a well-earned reputation for a million-dollar arm and a 10-cent head, lasted until No. 33, to Atlanta. Maybe teams were scared after what they saw happen with George.

1992 — Steve Emtman, DE, Washington, Indianapolis

You could call Emtman a bust, or a tragic case, for the same reason — he couldn't stay healthy. He ripped up both knees early in his career. It's amazing he lasted as long as he did after that. By the way, in this draft, the Colts had the first two picks, using them on Emtman and Texas A&M linebacker Quentin Coryatt, whose biggest play as a Colt was dropping a sure interception that would have stopped what ended up being the Steelers' game-winning drive in the 1995 AFC championship game. After this 1-2 debacle, Colts owner Jim Irsay smartly fired his general manager — himself. Results (for Emtman): eight seasons, zero Pro Bowls. Better choice: The most notable player in this draft took a while to catch stride — wide receiver Jimmy Smith, drafted No. 36 (by Dallas, later let go to Jacksonville in the 1995 expansion draft).

1993 — Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State, New England

Bledsoe will never get his bust in the Hall of Fame, but his face won't be immortalized in the parade of No. 1 busts either. Even though his numbers are comparable to the draft's 118th pick, Mark Brunell, most teams would like, if not necessarily love, his production. He was better than Jeff George, that's for sure. Results: 13 (and counting) seasons, four Pro Bowls. Better choices: at least four possible Hall of Famers in this draft — guard William Roaf (No. 8), running back Jerome Bettis (No. 10), defensive end Michael Strahan (No. 40) and safety John Lynch (No. 82).

1994 — Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State, Cincinnati

Wilkinson initially was tagged a bust, though he's still around, playing in Detroit. He found the key to a long career in the NFL — stay grotesquely large enough to clog the middle of the line like a washcloth in a sink drain. Results: 12 (and counting) seasons, zero Pro Bowls. Better choices: No. 2 Marshall Faulk and No. 4 Willie McGinest would have been defensible No. 1 picks, even in 1994. Today, No. 145 Rodney Harrison would be seen as a better candidate to be No. 1 than Wilkinson.

1995 — Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State, Cincinnati

Sometime in late 1989, a vortex of anti-football opened somewhere on Interstate 74 in Greensburg, Ind., spreading out to cover the Indianapolis and Cincinnati metro areas with a force so powerful, even multiple No. 1 picks could not get them out of it. As they did with Emtman, injuries killed Carter's career as much as anything else. Results: eight seasons (really, that's what the NFL says), zero Pro Bowls. Better choices: No. 3 Steve McNair might have gone No. 1 had he not played at little Alcorn State. Of course, this is the draft best known for establishing, with No. 196 Terrell Davis, the concept that little-known acorns at the end of the draft could grow into mighty, Super Bowl-winning oaks.

1996 — Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC, New York Jets

Johnson led the greatest class of wide receivers ever — No. 7 Terry Glenn, No. 18 Eddie Kennison, No. 19 Marvin Harrison, No. 24 Eric Moulds, No. 34 Amani Toomer, No. 43 Muhsin Muhammed, No. 54 Bobby Engram and No. 135 Joe Horn are still having very productive careers. Certainly with Harrison in this class, Johnson will never be considered the best receiver of 1996. It doesn't help he's better known, with his post-rookie season autobiography "Just Give Me the Damn Ball," for establishing the prototype of wide receiver as prima donna. Heck, he isn't even the best class-of-1996 receiver in that category, thanks to No. 89 Terrell Owens. Results: 10 (and counting) seasons, four Pro Bowls. Better choice: while all these receivers have done well, Harrison right now is the only surefire Hall-of-Famer.

1997 — Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State, St. Louis

Pace and Minnesota's Ron Yary (in 1968) are the only offensive tackles drafted No. 1 overall. Yary is in the Hall of Fame, Pace will be. Either that means tackles should be drafted No. 1 more often, or that players at the position have to be out of this world to be considered top-choice material. Results: Nine (and counting) seasons, seven Pro Bowls. Better choice: None, though No. 6 pick Walter Jones of Seattle, who clears out the right side of the defense for single-season rushing touchdown record holder Shawn Alexander, plays like a No. 1-worthy tackle.

1998 — Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee, Indianapolis

Fun, time-killing activity: search Google to find pundits who declared Ryan Leaf would be a much better pro quarterback than Manning. (There were many.) Remind them of their declaration. Sit smugly knowing you're bringing up a horrible, horrible memory. Results: eight (and counting) seasons, six Pro Bowls. Better choice: None, though it's worth noting this was the draft Randy Moss fell to No. 21 because of worries, some legitimate, some not-so-legitimate, over off-the-field issues.

1999 — Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky, Cleveland

In 1999, the anti-football vortex inexplicably disappeared from the Indianapolis-Cincinnati corridor (though the people of Cincinnati would not be aware of this until much later) and re-emerged right over downtown Cleveland, where it stays to this day. Results: six (and not counting) seasons, zero Pro Bowls. Better choices: Of the five quarterbacks drafted in the first 12 picks, only Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper are still in the NFL. Not that 2005 is a year they'll remember fondly. Oh yeah, and proving teams learned nothing from Terrell Davis, some guy named Tom Brady was taken 199th. (And Marc Bulger was 168th ).

2000 — Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State, Cleveland

After having flamed out in Cleveland faster than Couch, Brown has been taken in by Mike Shanahan in Denver, figuring that he'll turn his career around now that he's away from the anti-football vortex's sphere of influence. (Shanahan also added Browns 2001 first-round bust Gerard Warren this season, too. Maybe he'll call Couch next.) Results: six seasons, zero Pro Bowls. Better choice: If Cleveland wanted a defender, maybe eventual ninth pick Brian Urlacher might have fit the bill. Then again, though he survived dating Paris Hilton, Urlacher might have been rendered powerless under the vortex.

2001 — Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech, Atlanta

Given the teams' mediocre-to-good performances since the blockbuster draft-day trade that put Vick in Atlanta and put the San Diego offense in the hands of 2001 second-rounder Drew Brees and 2001 first-rounder LaDanian Tomlinson, you'd have to say the deal so far is a wash. Results: five reasons, three inexplicible (if you've actually paid attention to Vick through the course of a whole game) Pro Bowls. Better choice: Even if you consider Vick as a quarterback overrated, his effect in electrifying the Falcons' fan base, which wasn't thought to exist, cannot be underrated.

2002 — David Carr, QB, Fresno State, Houston

Quarterbacks such as Jake Plummer have thrown passes while lying down because they take chances. Carr does so because he's never had an offensive line. Results: four seasons, zero Pro Bowls. Better choice: Maybe Houston should have traded down to get star Bengals offensive tackle Levi Jones at No. 10. Then it could have built a line, and added a quarterback later.

2003 — Carson Palmer, QB, USC, Cincinnati

So much for the curse of the Heisman. At least when it comes to quarterbacks. Results: three seasons, one Pro Bowl. Better choice: None.

2004 — Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi, San Diego

By orchestrating a trade to the Giants after San Diego took him, Eli Manning showed his brother Peyton's ability to audible at the line, but did him one better by doing it before actually taking the field. Results: two seasons, zero Pro Bowls. Better choices: Too soon to say, but the first three players from this draft to make the Pro Bowl (all this year) - defensive tackle Tommie Harris of the Bears (No. 14), safety Bob Sanders of the Colts (No. 44) and cornerback Nathan Vasher of the Bears (No. 110). So much for investing a big bonus in a first-round pick.

2005 — Alex Smith, QB, Utah, San Francisco

Zero touchdowns, 10 interceptions through 15 games. Sure, former No. 1 pick and future Hall-of-Famer Terry Bradshaw had a rough go his first few years in Pittsburgh, but at least he got the ball in the end zone once or twice. Well, at least unlike Bradshaw, Smith is keeping his hair, though another season like this might cause it to start falling out. Results: One season, zero Pro Bowls. Better choices: The first Pro Bowler from this class is No. 12 pick Shawne Merriman, the San Diego linebacker.

Caveat: Reggie Bush says he'd love to go to San Francisco to be reunited with his old high school teammate, Smith. And why not? Given Smith's performance, he won't be trusted to throw, giving Bush lots and lots of handoffs.

E-mail Bob Cook at bobc@flakmag.com.