The 2007 Bracket Report
by Bob Cook
Before we all start filling out our bracket sheets, it's time to gripe over the NCAA tournament selections:
Most legitimate gripe about being left out: Drexel
Drexel finished 22-8 with a No. 43 RPI, including a No. 5 RPI in nonconference play. It won 14 games on road or neutral courts. It was 3-4 against the top 50 RPI. Two teams from its conference, the Colonial, got in. But brand-name teams and brand-name conference still get priority. How else to explain leaving out the Dragons in favor of Stanford? Stanford, from the big-name Pac-10, had a No. 64 RPI, was only 4-8 against the top 50 (and 18-12 overall). Drexel supposedly got dinged for losing in the semfinal round of its tournament, but Stanford didn't get out of the first round of the Pac-10 tournament.
Most illegitimate gripes about being left out: Missouri State and Bradley
The Missouri Valley Conference got four teams in last year's tournament, but only two — Creighton and Southern Illinois — this year. This was not because the selection committee was out to punish mid-majors (though the above item and further items below will show you they were). Missouri State (21-10), No. 36, and Bradley (20-12), No. 38, had higher RPIs than some at-large teams, but neither team put together as impressive a resume as last season, when they had similar records but were ranked higher in RPI (with Bradley getting in). The biggest problem: too much losing to the dregs in their own conference, and not enough beating the top teams.
Teams that got in that I would have left out: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Stanford, Texas Tech, Purdue, Vanderbilt
Teams that were left out that I would have invited: Drexel, Air Force, Missouri State, Bradley, Florida State, Utah State
When it comes to at-large teams with RPIs between, say, 35 and 60, you usually don't find one team that stands out appreciably over others (except Drexel). Still, over the course of the season, my six teams had a better resume than the NCAA's six teams. Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt got in because they are ACC teams, thus meaning ACC-biased announcer Billy Packer won't spent the tournament yelling at the selection committee. Texas Tech got in because Bob Knight always makes for great TV ratings. Purdue being basically one of the NCAA's local teams (only one hour's drive from NCAA headquarters) didn't hurt. And Stanford and Vanderbilt got in because the NCAA loves to parade elite schools so they can give the appearance that real students are allowed in the tournament.
Then again, other than Drexel, the six I would have invited had their own problems. Bradley and Missouri State, I've already covered. Air Force lost its last four games, including a first-round turd to Wyoming in the Mountain West tournament. Florida State had some great wins, but also some awful, awful losses to lousy teams. Utah State had a great run at the end of the season, including beating Nevada to get to the WAC final, but its No. 45 RPI belied the weak nonconference schedule it played.
Adventures in seeding, Part I: Virginia
Not only did the NCAA let the Cavaliers in, they further perpetuated an injustice by seeding them fourth in the San Antonio region. Fourth! Meanwhile, Nevada, a top-10 team most of the season, gets shoved to seventh. Creighton, which won the tournament of the conference with the sixth-highest overall RPI, is 10th. Tennessee, Louisville, BYU and Xavier, also seeded below Virginia, also have better resumes.
How could this happen? Oh look here — one of the 10 members of the selection committee is none other than Virginia athletic director Craig Littlepage!
Head-scratching over mid-majors: Southern Illinois vs. Holy Cross, Butler vs. Old Dominion, Nevada vs. Creighton, BYU vs. Xavier
It sure seems like a lot of the top mid-majors were scheduled to play each other in the first round. A conspiracy to keep mid-majors from upsetting too many major conference teams? Or a conspiracy to get as many mid-majors to advance as possible? Given the makeup of the selection committee, perhaps it's the latter. Six out of the 10 members represent mid-majors, and Littlepage was vociferous last year in defending the committee against Billy Packer's raging about the inclusion of so many Missouri Valley teams and George Mason, whose athletic director also is on the committee, and who, as we know now, was the Cinderella's Cinderella for making the Final Four last year. Then again, that still didn't help Drexel.
Adventures in seeding, Part II: Florida, Georgetown, Southern Illinois, UNLV
See if you can guess which was a No. 1, which was a No. 2, which was a No. 4, and which was a No. 7:
A. 26-6 record, 9-6 vs. top 50, 9-1 in last 10 games, ninth in RPI, 14th in strength of schedule
B. 26-6, 8-4 vs. top 50, 9-1 in last 10, seventh in RPI, 30th in SOS
C. 29-5, 8-4 vs. top 50, 7-3 in last 10, sixth in RPI, 38th in SOS
D. 27-6, 4-3 vs. top 50, 9-1 in last 10, 10th in RPI, 37th in SOS
Answers after the next item.
Why the NCAA tournament is like the Oscars: Appalachian State
The Southern Conference school took out a full-page "For Your Consideration" ad in the Indianapolis Star in an attempt to woo the committee that a 25-7 with a No. 62 RPI ranking, three wins over non-Division I schools, a 164th-ranked SOS, wins over Virginia and Vanderbilt but losses to sub-200 RPI dregs Elon and North Carolina-Greensboro, and a failure to make the final game of its own, usually single-bid conference tournament deserved a spot in the NCAA tournament. Star ad reps are dreaming more teams get that desperate next year. To be fair, though, Appalchian State's resume was still stronger than Stanford's.
Adventures in seeding, Part III: The answers to Part II
A. Georgetown. Seeded second.
B. Southern Illinois. Seeded fourth.
C. Florida. Seeded first.
D. UNLV. Seeded seventh.
Who says a lack of brand name and early hype can't hurt you in the NCAA tournament selection? Not me. It's not that the Florida, Georgetown and Southern Illinois seedings aren't legit. Florida won the SEC tournament, is the defending NCAA champion, and was top-ranked for most of the year. Georgetown won the Big East tournament. Southern Illinois blew its chance for a higher seeding by losing the Mo Valley final — being behind Kansas, UCLA and Pittsburgh in the San Jose region is very fair.
UNLV, though, got hosed. It was strong all year, but never got onto sportswriters' or the NCAA's radar. Given how UNLV was ALWAYS on everybody's radar when Jerry Tarkanian was leading its successful, rogue program from the 1970s into the 1990s, this development shows you how much times have changed.
Adventures in seeding, Part IV: Memphis
Yes, it's impressive to win 30 games no matter where you're from, but someday people are going to wake up and realize that Memphis' Conference USA, other than Memphis itself, would have a hard time staying competitive in the Southern. OVERRATED! (Clap clap clapclapclap) OVER-RATED! (Clap clap clapclapclap) ...
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My going-out-on-a-limb upset special: No. 14 Wright State over No. 3 Pittsburgh
When I've watched Pittsburgh, I've seen a team that doesn't exactly bowl you over with talent. They're a good team, and very well-coached, but it seems like they can be had. Wright State, meanwhile, was picked to finish at the bottom of the Horizon, and new coach Brad Brownell whipped them up to tie the more hyped Butler for the league's regular-season title, then held them steady against a 10-0 Bulldogs run to see them rally at home to win the conference final. Little guard DeShaun Woods will be all over the highlight shows, and Brownell will be all over the rumor mill to take over at a big-time program.
Where else to look for potential upsets?
Winthrop over Notre Dame (this will be a very trendy pick)
Virginia Commonwealth over Duke (another trendy pick)
Gonzaga over Indiana (the Zags have had their longest NCAA runs when not much was expected of them)
Albany over Virginia (the Great Danes — Scooby-Doo's favorite team — gave a much better Connecticut team a fight last year. Plus, if I'm going to rag on Virginia, I should pick against it.)
Oral Roberts over Washington State (because God wills it)
Easiest road to the Final Four: Ohio State
The Buckeyes are in the same region as fourth-seeded Virginia and second-seeded Memphis. The only way this road would have been easier is if Ohio State had been allowed to play its first- and second-round games in Columbus instead of Lexington.
My Final Four picks (for what they're worth): Ohio State, Georgetown, Florida, UCLA
My title pick (for what it's worth): Florida
What those picks ARE worth: Not a damn thing
(The original version of this story originally appeared on CultureCloud.com)
E-mail Bob Cook at bobc@flakmag.com.
