Myanmar: While the World Waits

Last week a colleague came to the office in the morning with a huge frown on her face. "I had the worst train ride — a woman next to me kept hitting her child, violently... he was visibly in pain and crying. It was outrageous, but I was paralyzed to do anything or say anything to prevent the child from being beaten. Neither could everyone else on train. Now, I'm just as disappointed with myself, and with everyone else on the train on the train, as I was with the abusive mother."

Substitute the mother with the military junta in Myanmar, and my colleague and the rest of the riders with the international community, and you have an analogy of what is happening in Myanmar.

It has been nearly 2 weeks since Cyclone Nargis ravished Myanmar. More than 60,000 have died, and many more are expected to perish in the second stage, from disease and other preventable maladies. The Burmese military junta has proven that they can neglect their own with impunity. After all, this disaster is incredibly convenient for them — the hardest hit areas were also the mostly populated by opposition groups and ethnic minorities.

The response from the UN has been absurdly slow and ineffective. On the third day of the catastrophe, a Monday, an emergency response team assembled by the Secretary General in Bangkok could not get visas, because, well, ahem, the Burmese embassy was closed for national holiday. Now, after 14 days, the UN has managed to convince the military junta to allow 34 experts into the country. In comparison, the US military had 15,000 personnel help with the tsunami cleanup effort four years ago.

The UN and the US have been using "quiet diplomacy" to try to assuage the repressive regime in Yangon. We should know by now that closed regimes are not skilled diplomats. Ban Ki-Moon has tried several times to get in touch with Than Shwe, the Burmese ruler, but he seems to be, in the words of UN undersecretary John Holmes, "allergic to the phone." In lieu of phone or email contact, Mr. Ban has sent two letters to the Burmese leader, both of which have failed to elicit a response.

But don't be too quick to blame the UN. It's hamstrung by two obstacles. One is administrative. The "responsibility to protect" principle — which empowers the Security Council to protect civilians if their government proves to not be up to the task — doesn't cover circumstances of natural disaster. And even if any action were proposed by the Security Council, China would certainly veto.

China, Thailand, India and other regional powers are the only ones who are in close contact with the Burmese regime. But those countries have significant business interests in Myanmar — Thailand has its hands in the logging industry and China uses the country for access to the Indian Ocean. With agreements in place, these countries are unlikely to do anything to irritate the military junta. In a sign of how much the junta values trade to line its coffers, last Friday, less than a week after the cyclone hit, the LA Times reported that Burmese vessels were exporting rice to Bangladesh.

Meantime, since the UN can't do anything and the countries in regions are unwilling to cross the generals, the only other option is some sort of forced intervention. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has suggested sending in humanitarian workers with military assistance. After all, US and French naval vessels are floating in the waters off of Myanmar waiting for a green light. The US has 11,000 Marines in the vicinity. But there would be no clean and easy way for the already overstretched US military to get involved, and intervention would be tantamount to an invasion.

In the New York Times editorial page, Robert Kaplan suggests that such an action is "militarily doable," but the "very act of our invasion could land us with the responsibility for fixing Burma afterward." Alluding to Iraq, he suggests that the invasion would ultimately lead to a collapse of the regime, and the US would be stuck with picking up the pieces. And we're hardly ready for that with ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Instead of an invasion, the US, UK, and France should just threaten uninvited intervention by a certain date if no more visas are granted. The US has hinted at dropping aid from helicopters to the worst hit areas in the Delta region. There has been no response to this from the government so far.

Also, Ban Ki-Moon and other heads of state should consider a trip to Yangon, since they have been unable to get in contact with the ruling government by phone. Admiral Keating of the US Pacific command made a surprising visit to Yangon on Monday. In response, two more C130 US airplanes were allowed to fly in the next day.

The international community has spent the last two weeks watching the death toll rise in Myanmar. The clock is ticking, and it's time to pursue stronger action. Are we willing to walk away from the end of this with a profound sense of disappointment for not acting when we should have, because we were paralyzed by fear?