Megawati Sukarnoputri
by Clay Risen

These days, Indonesian politics is all about flags. Walk through any town on any of the country’s almost 13,000 islands and you will see them — in shop windows, on the backs of cars, in rows along the road. They range from postcard size to flags as big as half a basketball court. Each party has their own flag, and Indonesians have little shame in showing their political colors.

So it’s no surprise that the party whose flags drape almost every road in the country, the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (Or PDI-P), is heavily favored to win last Monday’s parliamentary election. Because of antiquated balloting techniques and fears of fraud, the final tallies will not be in until June 21, but already PDI-P commands a sizable lead with over 1,145,000 votes, several hundred thousand ahead of the second-place Islamic National Awakening Party and the incumbent Golkar Party.

But unlike its competitors, PDI-P does not represent an ideology, nor does it stand for the traditional elite. Rather, PDI-P is embodied in one person, Megawati Sukarnoputri. The daughter of deposed leader Sukarno (most Indonesians have only one name), "Mega" has emerged as the symbol of the oppressed, of the struggle against tyranny and the country’s nascent democratic system.

Mega and PDI-P are a study in contrasts. She is a bespectacled, 52 year-old woman who looks as if she might belong in a library or as someone’s grandmother. She speaks softly, takes few positions, and is regarded even by her admirers as a political novice. Indeed, many Indonesian political analysts argue that she means little to the country beyond the legacy of her father, Indonesia’s last democratically elected president who fell in a coup led by Suharto in 1967.

On the other hand, PDI-P is the quintessential protest party. It has led the way in opposing the 32-year reign of Suharto’s Golkar party, particularly during last years student riots. Its symbol, a black, narrow-eyed bull, is plastered on t-shirts, walls, and hats, and bespeaks a populist anger, a "we’re pissed and we’re not going to take it anymore" attitude on the part of the Indonesian public.

If the elections go smoothly, then Indonesia will become the world’s third largest democracy (behind India and the United States), and PDI-P will likely take the lead of a parliamentary coalition. These elections set the stage for November’s presidential election by the Consultative Assembly, a body made up of the Parliament (the DPR), 38 military delegates and 200 regional representatives. Because the DPR makes up the overwhelming majority of the Assembly, Mega will likely be the next president of Indonesia.

For many Indonesians, this prospect is a dream come true, particularly for people in places like Ambon and Irian Jaya, provinces both physically and politically isolated from Jakarta. They see Mega as both a symbol of the past reborn, as well as a clean slate for the future.

As a symbol, Mega is all of these things. But like George W. Bush in the United States, Mega is defined almost exclusively by those around her, while betraying little of her own political agenda. She says she is for democracy and open markets. She says she is for an end to ethnic violence. So, too, does every other candidate. These are generic ideas, possible only because to the people it matters very little what she thinks; what matters is that she represents change.

There is little chance that she will go the way of the demagogue, riding populism until she is in complete power. There is a danger, though. While many write Mega’s lack of concrete political views off as relative inexperience, her failure to elucidate some sort of position on something — anything — leaves her open to manipulation by the Jakarta elite and the military.

Though her father has come to represent democracy and human rights, he himself was a part of the old guard, and for all his leftist pretensions was never about giving power to the people. Mega has maintained many of his old ties, and she has tied her political future to her good relationship with the military.

These relationships, tied with her game of political hide-and-go-seek, may ensure that Indonesian politics remains business as usual. She has already made contradictory statements on the future of East Timor, a province that has been struggling for freedom ever since its invasion by Indonesia in 1974. The Indonesian people are willing to grant it independence to stop the bloodshed; but Mega’s shakiness may portend a willingness to let the powers-that-be decide.

If PDI-P wins, Indonesia will have taken the giant step into a new era of democracy and human rights. Paradoxically, if Mega wins, the country may have much longer to wait until real chance occurs.

E-mail Clay Risen at risenc@yahoo.com.