A Bush-Kasich Alliance
by Steven Lederman

The July 14th announcement that Representative John Kasich (R-Ohio) was endorsing Gov. George W. Bush, Jr. for the Republican Presidential nomination and abandoning his own bid demonstrated not only how far campaign 2000 has come at such an early stage, but also the belief of many Republicans that a moderate candidate is the best hope for the future of the party. In the Aug. 14 Iowa straw poll, Bush won 31% of the votes, topping his nearest rival, Steve Forbes, by 10%, further proving the strength of his candidacy.

As its main deficit hawk, Kasich is a prominent player within the GOP. He has fought for a balanced budget throughout his tenure as Chairman of the House Budget Committee and was the chief architect of the GOP deficit reduction plan in 1995. An avid supporter of tax cuts, he is a poster boy for the party's fiscally conservative wing.

Kasich seems to have endorsed Bush for several reasons. First, having already raised $36 million, Bush has a war chest far larger than any of his opponents, making competition difficult. Second, Kasich has aspirations beyond his current position in Congress. In a Bush administration, he would definitely be on the short list for a prestigious job like Treasury Secretary or Director of the Office of Management and Budget. In the White House, Kasich could have a bigger impact on economic policy than he currently has from the legislature.

Bush's outlook on social matters, dubbed "compassionate conservatism", meshes well with Kasich's view of the role of government. Both men believe that reducing the size of government is really about returning power back to the American people. Bush's approach seeks to help people by operating through institutions of civil society, but does allow for government action when necessary. Kasich has said he shares the belief that people can help other people through various civic and religious organizations, but is willing to tolerate limited government involvement in certain matters.

The fundraising totals of the Bush campaign — $36 million through June — demonstrate the message's appeal, but the ride to the White House is not without bumps in the road. While appealing to the general populace, Bush's approach leans farther left than many Republicans would like and gives government a role larger than his colleagues are willing to tolerate. In addition, "compassionate conservatism" has been derided by many as liberal idealism under a conservative guise. Talk of helping people get a fair shake and confronting suffering are eerily similar to Democratic rhetoric used in government programs like the "New Deal". Bush's methods differ from the "big government is good government" approaches of FDR and LBJ, but his intent seems to be the same.

Thus, a rift threatens to emerge between Bush and his colleagues due to their contrasting views on the role of government and notions of individual responsibility. Social conservatives and pro-lifers are already threatening to bolt if Bush receives the nomination. Senator Bob Smith (R-NH) recently left the party, launching his presidential bid as an independent. The social conservatives and religious right may choose to join him or create a faction of their own if the wording of the GOP's platform on issues like abortion does not satisfy them. Adding Kasich to the Bush camp helps bring the backing of economic conservatives. Although the Governor is careful not to alienate mainstream Republicans concerned with big business interests and small government, he is pushing the ideological envelope. Consequently, he faces a double edged sword — he is criticized from the left for imitating liberals and from the right for being too soft and not conservative enough.

Furthermore, a policy shift to the left by Bush risks alienating the far right wing of the Republican Party, who are often the most enthusiastic voters. The angry white males that enabled the Republican revolution of 1994 are likely to be turned off by softer rhetoric about reaching out a hand to the needy. Libertarians are not interested in Bush's use of even limited government assistance to solve problems. The Governor has been quick to embrace the "center" of American politics, almost too quick. The actual GOP primaries are not until Spring 2000, and the nominating convention does not occur until that summer. There is plenty of time for disgruntled conservatives to unite and block his candidacy. Centrism is likely to be successful in the fall of 2000, but Bush needs to be careful about using a general election strategy in the primary race. Having Kasich's support helps Bush fit in with mainstream conservatives, thereby strengthening his candidacy.

As prominent Republicans take sides, Bush has received lots of support, but he has not captured the nomination yet. He has been endorsed by 21 Governors, 19 Senators, and numerous members of Congress, but others on the right believe he is not conservative enough. Having Kasich on his team identifies Bush with a strong conservative who is well-liked within the Republican Party. It also provides the Governor with a strong spokesman on economic matters, who can shape his economic policy proposals. Electoral themes for the GOP since 1992 have centered around conservative political ideas like a balanced budget, tax cuts, restricting abortion, expansion of states' rights and opposition to flag burning. Bush wants to shift the focus to uses of limited government that fall within conservative ideological confines.

The restoration of compassion to the GOP redefines what the party stands for. Instead of appealing to wealthy white males and libertarians, Republicans can broaden their base to include more women and minorities, simply by appearing to be more caring. Bush's strategy is a bold step for the party that is not without risk — disgruntled right-wingers could bolt and take their votes elsewhere — but is a wise course for the 2000 elections that could bring a substantial reward. If Bush is victorious, Kasich will benefit as part of the administration that brings America into the next millennium.

E-mail Steven Lederman at disdig187 at aol dot com.