It's Not Easy Being Dean
by Adam J. Stellato

By last October, Howard Dean was on a roll. On Oct. 1, he announced that he had raised $15 million in the third quarter, breaking a record set by Bill Clinton during his reelection campaign in 1995. Most remarkably, this record was broken not by another sitting president — not even by a presumptive nominee — but by a candidate dismissed by party insiders only months earlier as a mere footnote to the presidential race. And about half of the money, $7.5 million, was collected on the Internet.

Dean's success wasn't limited to fund raising. More than 450,000 supporters had registered at his online headquarters, DeanforAmerica.com, along with 121,000 at MeetUp.com. Dean's online support seemed to translate into physical support, as evidenced by the nearly 44,000 people who turned out for his four-day, nine-city "Sleepless Summer" tour. "People-Powered Howard," the campaign delighted in calling its candidate, crediting its passionate and engaged supporters for propelling Dean to the top of the Democratic heap. Even the name "people-powered" was suggested by a supporter — online.

But that was October. Now, in the wake of Tuesday's Wisconsin primary, Dean's campaign is over. In the past six weeks his national support collapsed, his negative ratings skyrocketed, and key staffers deserted. He never won a single primary. How was Dean able to generate so much support and money in 2003 only to see his fortunes fade so dramatically in 2004? Put simply, it seems, at least in this election, that empowering voters is a double-edged sword.

Dean's record as governor of Vermont was quite moderate: he was a fiscal conservative and a reluctant supporter of the death penalty; he even has a perfect record with the NRA. But the field of candidates was so crowded with moderates that someone with such little name recognition would be lost among national figures like Lieberman, Kerry and Gephardt. So Dean got angry.

Dean and his team crafted a message of anger toward Bush and his administration, and toward Democrats for not standing up to them. Some of his earliest success came when he co-opted the late Senator Paul Wellstone's line about "representing the Democratic wing of the Democratic party." Dean came out early against the Bush tax cuts, the No Child Left Behind mandates and, most significantly, the war in Iraq.

And progressive activists, desperate for someone willing to stand up and speak for them and put them to work, liked what they saw. In June, Dean won 44 percent of the vote in MoveOn.org's Internet primary. More than 317,000 people participated, more people than vote in many actual state primaries. Success with MoveOn.org proved that Dean's rhetoric could attract attention from the left, but Dean's message was more than protest: Dean supporters arrived feeling angry and left feeling empowered. If Bill Clinton wanted to be our Oprah president, feeling our pain, Howard Dean wanted to be our Dr. Phil president, motivating us to get off the couch and do what we need to do.

Those supporters, suddenly convinced they had found the man who could take their concerns all the way to the White House, soon became a movement. Dean's website, campaign blog and links to MoveOn.org and MeetUp.com provided immediate facilitation for that empowerment. With the click of a button or the stroke of a key, Dean supporters could connect with others of similar interests and backgrounds. They could share their thoughts with other supporters and with the campaign itself. They volunteered to canvass neighborhoods, write letters, hang fliers or host events. And they gave money. Lots of it. Suddenly Howard was on top, and behind him stood countless supporters convinced that they really could take the White House.

By the time primary season arrived, Democratic voters had a very different outlook on the 2004 election than they had a year earlier when Dean entered the race. Dean's message of anger and empowerment had awakened sleeping Democratic voters, empowered frustrated progressives who believed no one was listening, built dynamic grassroots communities willing to rally and donate on command, and convinced his supporters he just might win. But rather than leading with the anger in their hearts that Dean had instilled, his supporters began to lead with a pragmatism in their minds that they they must nominate the man with the best chance of beating George Bush.

And so newly optimistic and driven Democratic voters turned away from the man who had awoken them, and toward John Kerry, who, according to exit poll after exit poll, is winning primaries mostly because voters believe he's the most electable. If Dean hadn't so effectively persuaded his supporters that real change was within their reach, they might have followed him to the end. But empowered voters make powerful choices, and Dean's supporters chose to "date Dean, but marry Kerry." Chances are they're only making that choice because their fling with Dean gave them power to believe they can win.