If the movement is to be judged on how much it affected the administration's war
planning, then the movement has completely failed. Of course, only the most starry-eyed
protester could have expected to stop the war. But when polls show 70 percent of the
country supports the war, it's hard to say that the protesters' efforts changed
the course of the national debate. Is this because they were wrong? Far from it
millions of people around the world agree with them. And there are many reasons to
disagree with the war: the threat it poses to the Atlantic alliance and the UN, the
potential for North Korea and Iran to use it as an excuse to proliferate, the risk
of being bogged down in northern Iraq. The source of the movement's failure, then,
likely lies not in the premise that the war is wrong but, to a large extent, in the
specific reasons the movement has chosen to emphasize.
At any given rally there will be many different slogans and banners: "Bush Is a
War Criminal." "Chirac for President." "Iraqis Are People Too." But the one idea most
represented is that the
war is, ultimately, about oil. Fifty people stood outside the White House on March 20
shouting "No Blood for Oil." Dennis Kucinich, an Ohio representative and Democratic
presidential candidate, asks: "Why is the administration targeting Iraq? Oil." The
idea that Bush and Co. are going into Iraq to control its oil fields is, on face,
compelling: Bush and Cheney are oil men; the first Gulf War was fought largely over
access to Kuwaiti oil; oil is our most strategic resource. If anything, the concept is the
sine qua non of the movement: the one point that, if not agreed on by everyone,
goes practically uncontested.
Unfortunately, it is also completely wrong. There are easier ways to get at Iraq's
oil than invading, and the United States can get its oil elsewhere. If anything, the
last thing oil companies and according to the theory, Bush and Cheney by
extension want is volatility in the oil market. And with the exception of the
first Gulf War, the United States has never engaged in a resource war as the
world's largest economy, there are easier ways to get what we want. Blood will be
shed in Iraq, but not for oil.
So why say it? Quite simply, because "No Blood for Oil" is in line with
proven protest strategies and ideas. It worked in the first Gulf War. It is
consistent with the anti-globalization movement to which the current protest movement
owes so much of its momentum. And it builds on the quasi-Marxist theory that underlies
so many of the guiding principles behind the last 100 years of protest culture: that the
United States, regardless of who's in the Oval Office and what is the foreign policy
crisis at hand, will stop at nothing to expand its control over world resources. If
we are not actually imperialists in the classical sense, it is only because we have
found a better way. Who needs to own territory when you can, through military might,
force the resources of those territories to come to you?
Whether this was ever true is a topic for another column. The point is, though,
that it is no longer true. The very world that allows organizers to coordinate hundreds
of synchronous protests also makes direct control over resources irrelevant. Thanks to
the telecommunications revolution, international markets are infinitely more fluid
than they were just 12 years ago. If for some reason we needed more oil, we could simply
manipulate spot markets elsewhere, or lean on OPEC to increase its output (and again,
thanks to the fluidity of markets, OPEC has much less control over global oil output
than it once did).
As a result, "No Blood for Oil" is both necessary to the movement's cohesion and
ultimately self-defeating. It brings people together, but it also delegitimizes the
movement in the eyes of the larger public. It
reeks of the same sort of far-left sermonizing that has long turned off middle-class
America, and its simplicity strikes many more as both naïve and deeply cynical.
It is neither nuanced nor relevant to the current conflict. While there are many
reasons to oppose the war, this isn't one of them. Unfortunately, for many it is
the only one that seems to make sense.
Email Clay Risen at risenc@yahoo.com.